Everything is Luck. Are you Lucky?

I'm convinced that everything is luck. That doesn't mean that I believe in atheism, but all things competition essentially comes down to some form of luck, regardless of skill level.

The thing mathematicians get wrong in the realm of statistical probabilities is the variable of time.

Take poker for instance. Theory says that if you get your chips in with a statistical advantage, eventually over a period of time you'll be ahead. But how much time? Math in infinite, a person's time is finite.

So, lets say it takes the math 1000 years to work itself out, and you only play poker for 15 years. Lets say that you consistently get your chips in the pot at a collective 60% expected win rate, but you only win 35% of the time. You're just left to assume that all those times you're getting your money in "good" that the math is going to eventually work itself out. But it's almost guaranteed that it won't. 

Critics might say, "the best poker players in the world are basically just math nerds, if what you're saying is true, how do they consistently win?" Simple. They're consistently lucky. If all poker players were using math engines to make their decisions, every poker player would still have different outcomes. Some would be winners. Most would be losers. The math only works when time is excluded as the primary variable, which is impossible for humans. Thus, luck is the primary variable in math-based poker theory.

You might say, "Ok, what about a skill-based game like chess?" There is a ton of luck in chess, regardless of skill level. That's not to say that a casual player is going to beat Magnus, but let's say that a random person gets online to play chess. They were up all night drinking and it's their first game of the day. They haven't played in a while, and their game is rusty. They haven't done any tactics or other warm up exercises to refresh their brain. Their rating is 1600. They hit "play" and are matched up with a 1450 player who is on an 8 game winning streak and has been playing solid chess. The game is relatively equal through the opening, and neither player is playing based on memorized theory at this point. In other words, they are just "playing chess." A critical moment arises in the game, and the 1450 player has to make the perfect move, and he intuitively finds it, not because he has visualized the position, but because he is playing good chess and basically just "gets lucky" and makes the right move. The 1600 player has to find the perfect move to counter the 1450 player's move and he doesn't find it. The 1450 player wins the game. Was it because the 1450 player is better, or because he got lucky?

Oh, so you want an example that's not based on competition? Ok, how about this: As I type this I have these annoying gnats flying around my computer screen. Every time I sit down at my computer they appear out of nowhere to annoy the crap out of me. The more I swat at them, the more elusive they become. I called my buddy who is doing the exact same thing; he is sitting at his computer desk typing. He doesn't have any gnats harassing him, nor does he ever. "You probably have a dirty house or something," he says. But I don't. I just have these annoying gnats that love to annoy me when I'm sitting at my computer desk typing.

I could go on to give countless examples. But I want to clarify that belief in luck doesn't nullify providence. In fact, it validates it.

God's grace sits atop the hierarchy of luck. 

Conor McGregor is Finished!

I'm not a big fan of kicking someone when they're down. Although, I'm not sure how "down" someone is if they just made $30 million in a minute, even if it did result in a torn up knee in the first seconds of the fight.

I don't know Conor's financial situation, but I assume he didn't come back for the money. I haven't heard any speculation that he came back for the money. He came back for the glory, competition and his legacy.

Last year I predicted that Conor McGregor would never win another UFC fight. I don't think that was any kind of bold prediction, but I'd up the bet if I was a gambling man.

It's interesting the way that fame and fortune will change a person. Conor had it all, and for some reason he just wasn't content with riding off in the sunset and enjoying the fruits of his labor.

The majority of people don't understand how tough it is to deal with boredom. Money can provide distractions until it doesn't. People will say things like, "If I had money and didn't have to work, I'd do this, that and the other," and they would, until they did all those things, then they'd get bored and come face-to-face with the devil on his playground, just like Conor did:

I was so sharp and so ready for this fight I cannot believe what has happened. The talk of me being off while walking in to the fight is nonsense. I was calm, ready, and confident. I am in shock what has taken place. The devil is literally staring at me right in front of my face…

— Conor McGregor (@TheNotoriousMMA) July 12, 2026

When a man comes face-to-face with the devil is the moment free will sets in. You have the choice to accept or reject temptation. When you're a millionaire with nothing but time, this can be almost impossible. This is why the Bible refers to money as the "root of all evil."

Conor is finished as a fighter. I think everyone knows that. But now he is in the biggest fight of his life. The fight for his soul. Dostoevsky once said in the Brothers Karamazov that God and the devil are fighting and the battlefield is the heart of man.

Again, I assume Conor's motivation for his comeback wasn't money. But perhaps $30 million takes the sting off defeat. But, I would guess that even if it does, being content with the payday will only be temporary. Conor claims he is a man of God now. I think he knows without the armor of God that he is merely Satan's servant. 

Ephesians 6:10-18 Finally, my brethren, be strong in the Lord, and in the power of his might. Put on the whole armour of God, that ye may be able to stand against the wiles of the devil. For we wrestle not against flesh and blood, but against principalities, against powers, against the rulers of the darkness of this world, against spiritual wickedness in high places. Wherefore take unto you the whole armour of God, that ye may be able to withstand in the evil day, and having done all, to stand. Stand therefore, having your loins girt about with truth, and having on the breastplate of righteousness; and your feet shod with the preparation of the gospel of peace; above all, taking the shield of faith, wherewith ye shall be able to quench all the fiery darts of the wicked. And take the helmet of salvation, and the sword of the Spirit, which is the word of God: praying always with all prayer and supplication in the Spirit, and watching thereunto with all perseverance and supplication for all saints;

God bless Conor McGregor.

Allow My Distractions to Distract You

 A wise man once said, "One's quality of life is co-dependent upon the quality of their distractions."

Those of you who are familiar with my TV viewing habits, know that I adhere to what I like to call the "Reality TV trinity," which is First 48, Jeopardy and UFC. Excluding those, I rarely use TV as a distraction. But, there are always exceptions, and last night I watched a true crime documentary and a movie, back-to-back, which is almost unheard of for me. Not so much because I'm so anti-TV, but mostly because my ADHD won't allow it.

First up was this rather disturbing documentary on Netflix titled Maternal Instincts:

If you've ever wondered about psychopathy, the woman in this show highlights it to a T. She is a sick, sick individual. She is such a compulsive liar that she comes to believe that she can murder a woman, cut her baby out of her stomach, and pass it off as her own. It's a bizarre story that epitomizes "truth is sometimes stranger than fiction." 

It's easy to watch this kind of stuff and be like, "How in the hell could someone fall for this crap?" But when you watch the show, you can definitely empathize with the fella who got gaslighted by the psychopath. I mean, who thinks someone is going to lie about being pregnant, fake the pregnancy for 10 months, then go kill someone and cut out their baby to save face?

If you have an hour and a half of free time, access to Netflix and like true crime documentaries, then this is a highly recommended distraction for you.

Up next is a movie. 

Now, look, I don't really watch movies at all. Particularly comedy/romance type flicks, but Midnight in Paris is actually worth wasting an hour and a half on if you're just looking to be distracted.

I came across this movie while reading an article about Gertrude Stein, whom I was unfamiliar with. Stein was portrayed in the movie as an eccentric art critic/collector and writer in 1920's Paris. She rubbed shoulders with the likes of Hemmingway, Picasso, Fitzgerald and others.

The movie itself was rather interesting, and quite enjoyable if I'm being honest. The main character, Owen Wilson, is a writer struggling with the golden age fallacy (thinking a different era is better than the current one), and every night at midnight he would travel back to 1920s Paris and interact with many of the greats of the era. 

Wilson is initially is picked up by F. Scott Fitzgerald and his wife Zelda. They go to a bar and he is introduced to Ernest Hemmingway. Eventually, he meets Stein, and she and Hemmingway reviewed the manuscript for Wilson's book. He also had a brief romance with Picasso's fictitious mistress, Adrian, who ultimately enabled him to see the flaw in his golden age fallacy when they travel back to the late 1800s and she refuses to return to the 1920s after they go to the Moulin Rouge and they meet Toulouse-Lautrec, Gauguin and Degas, even though all three of them agree that the Renaissance age is the best era. 

All-in-all, an excellent distraction that doesn't even require a streaming subscription, as it can be seen for free on Tubi. And, it's only an hour and a half long, so if you have ADHD like me, and hate movies that are longer than 2 hours, this is a good one for you.

Who is Israel?

Everyone agrees that the Bible was written to Israelites. Therefore, "Who is Israel?" is a rather important question. Let's talk about it. 

I grew up a "John 3:16" Christian. What I mean by that, is that I cherry-picked a handful of Bible verses and that was the constitution of my religious faith. I never understood any Biblical theology.

The Bible says a lot of things. The Bible says a lot of contrary things. There is no other book that is open to interpretation the way that the Bible is. You can talk theology with 10 different people and get 10 different interpretations of scripture. Furthermore, there are like 100 different translations of the Bible.

That being said, once I stepped back and looked at the Bible for what it was (a will of covenants), it all made perfect sense. I credit the Holy Spirit with this profound personal revelation.

The Bible is the will (a testament is a will) of God. 

The Bible is a book of covenants (conditional and unconditional).

The Bible is written to, for, by and about a specific group of people. God chose Abraham, his son Isaac and his grandson Jacob. Jacob (later named Israel) had 12 sons, who became the 12 tribes of Israel for which God made his covenants with. This bloodline is who God, through the prophets, wrote the old testament too.

God divorced His bride Israel in the old testament due to their disobedience. 

Jeremiah 3:8 And I saw, when for all the causes whereby backsliding Israel committed adultery I had put her away, and given her a bill of divorce; yet her treacherous sister Judah feared not, but went and played the harlot also. 

The new testament is commentary on the fulfillment of old testament prophesy. Most people believe that the new testament is somehow about everyone because of the word "gentiles." The new testament is all about God's remarriage to his bride.

Yes, God made a new covenant, but it was still with the same people. The new covenant places salvation on grace by faith instead of circumcision or the law.  

Jeremiah 31:31 The days are coming,” declares the LORD, “when I will make a new covenant with the people of Israel and with the people of Judah.

Gentiles just means "nations." By the time of the new testament, the nations of Israel had been scattered abroad for hundreds of years, due to a series of expulsions out of Jerusalem. Only a small remnant eventually returned. The remaining 10 "lost" tribes of Israel migrated and became the sons and daughters of Europe. These are the nations or "gentiles" that the new testament refers too. They are still the offspring of Abraham.

The question becomes, are these people those who we call "Jews" and live in modern day Israel?

No. Ashkenazi Jews (the majority of American and Israeli Jews) are Turkish Khazars who converted to Judaism and migrated to Eastern Europe in 12th and 13th century AD. They are not ancient Israelites. 

Jesus himself spoke about this implicitly: 

Revelations 2:9 I know your works, tribulation, and poverty (but you are rich); and I know the blasphemy of those who say they are Jews and are not, but are a synagogue of Satan.

Ashkenazi Jews have not fulfilled any of God's promises to Abraham's seed. They haven't blessed the world. They haven't become a multitude of nations. They don't have an abundance of lands. They are the imposters for which the risen Christ spoke about in scripture.

I understand how to most Christians it doesn't really matter who are the "real" Jews and who are the "fake" ones. They are content with being "spiritual" Israel. And, I suppose in theory, that's good enough. There are many components at play when it comes to salvation. Grace is certainly atop the hierarchal ladder in my humble opinion. But if God's chosen (the sons and daughters of Europe) knew who they were, the world would be a much different place.

God is sovereign, not politically incorrect. 

Jesus Christ is the kinsman redeemer. God came in the form of a sinless man to die on the cross for the sins of His people, so that he could be risen from the dead and remarry his bride, Israel.

All glory to God!

Only N-Words Use the N-Word

When I was growing up, I had never heard the word "narcissist." Nowadays, I've never met a woman who doesn't use that word redundantly. 

After 4 failed marriages, Jennifer Lopez claims that she has a "PhD in narcissists."

Jennifer Lopez has apparently known some narcissists in her life.

Without naming names, the "Let’s Get Loud" singer joked that she could "give a Ted Talk on human behavior, emotional intelligence and dysfunctional relationships," cracking up as she said the last part.

"PhD in narcissists," she added with a laugh.

Lopez, who finalized her divorce with Ben Affleck last year, has been married four times.

Have you ever heard of that saying, "Is it everyone else, or is it you?" 

After 4 failed marriages, none lasting more than 10 years, it seems highly unlikely that on 4 different occasions "n words" would manipulate a strong, independent, wealthy woman like Lopez.

I mean, lets be honest here, if you listen to the female ramblings of the status quo you would be led to believe the "n words" are the kryptonite of feminism.

Feminism is the rebellion of the patriarchy. It essentially allows every woman to validate her emotions and slap her father in the face with her inhibitions without repercussion. And when things don't work out, blame "n words."

I'm old enough to remember when J-Lo "dated" Puff Daddy.

Personally, I never thought she was all that attractive. All of her sex appeal came from "Hollywood" subliminally promoting her to the blacks because she had a big booty. All of J-Lo's self-worth comes from her SMV, and now that she's old nobody cares anymore. So her femininity is now reduced to her feelings, which comes out in name calling.

If you're interested in how social engineering works, go ask any woman about her ex and see what she says. At least 90% will refer to him as the "n word," as if she has zero culpability with regards to accountability. Why? Because she understands that feminism > diversity. 

Actually, that's not entirely accurate. She doesn't "understand" that, from a rational standpoint. Because if you initiate a discussion about narcissism with her you will quickly find out that her understanding on the subject is simply a combination of her lack of accountability for anything within personal relationship dynamics, and that her feelings are always superior to logical reasoning.

This isn't an attack on women, per se. Although, I could care less about being labeled a misogynist or whatever the popular label is now. It's just to say that women have been given an easy out for their shortcomings. We have seen the same thing with the blacks for 50 years. When things don't workout well, use the "r word." 

Social Engineering 101, my friends.

Stay thirsty. It's hot outside. 

Consumed with Consumerism

Welp, I fully intended on having a very prolific writing year, and, as you can tell, I haven't.

I have drank a lot of beer, though.

As they say, the road to hell is paved with good intentions.

Who is "they" anyway? Do you ever notice people always says, "They say...."?

Not to be pretentious (remember, I'm a prolific beer drinker), but digressing...

I find myself drinking primarily out of boredom.

Not to sound pretentious (remember, I'm a prolific beer drinker), but I get bored easily.

It's interesting how people respond to that. They're always like, "Why don't you try to do something to make more money?"

Not to seem pretentious, (remember, I drink cheap beer all day), but making money is kinda boring. 

Money is just a tool; a means to an end. People who spend their whole life essentially chasing a hammer around seems silly. I get it that God wants us to work. At least I think He does. And we obviously have to have some form of sustenance to survive, although there are a lot of homeless/unemployed people who someone seem to survive.

But we aren't talking about making money to survive. We are talking about making money as a cure for boredom.

Most of you would probably say something like, "Well, I'd probably travel, learn an instrument or language and do a lot of fishing." But what happens after you've done all that? I'll tell you what happens, those things become boring and you want to do something else.

Psychology 101 says, "Once you get what you want, you want something else."

Sometimes when I'm bored I scroll social media reels. It's so crazy how many black people like to show people have much cash they have. It's like, "OK, you got some cash. Now what?" Most likely it's not even real, and even if it is, they're probably going to get robbed by some other blacks who want to make social media reels showing everyone how much cash they have. And the cycle will continue.

I suppose the cool thing about being black is that you don't get bored. 

I guess the moral of this post is to say that I'm sorry for being such a prolific beer drinker and not writing more. And that I wish I was black so I could line a couple grand worth of fake 20s up my arm and video it and be like, "Look at me, Whitey. I ain't bored!"

The Holy Spirit Sent You Here!

The Holy Spirit directed me to this beautiful sermon by Pastor Dan Gayman, and he has apparently led you to the same place.

I love how Pastor Gayman reminds us that we are merely dirt without belief in God. 

Jesus is the Son of God, sent to pay for the price of our sins. 

Be humble and repent!

God bless.