Bitcoin's True Value is Less than $1000

https://www.npr.org/2022/07/21/1112689091/bitcoin-tesla-selloff 

What a difference a year makes. After making big plays in Bitcoin in 2021, Tesla jettisoned $936 million worth of the cryptocurrency in the second quarter of 2022, trimming its Bitcoin holdings by 75%, the company said in new investor filings.

Tesla aggressively embraced Bitcoin in 2021, investing $1.5 billion in the currency as CEO Elon Musk touted Bitcoin's advantages over standard fiat currency. For part of the year, Tesla customers could buy cars using Bitcoin.

But in recent months, Tesla's profitability was affected by "Bitcoin impairment," it said in its financial summary of the second quarter.

At the beginning of 2022 I predicted that BTC would drop to $25K and stabilize. Thus far it appears I knew what I was talking about. 

The bigger question is the future of bitcoin: where does it go from here?

Bitcoin was never suppose to become the preposterous ponzi scheme that it became. It was designed to be a revolutionary "currency" for a fringe element of the population (anarchists, criminals, ideologues, etc). 

Theoretically, BTC should have never breached the $1000 threshold. But it got a lot of media play, and it became a "get rich quick" ploy that attracted normies. To the average person, buying crypto was like playing high stakes slots at a virtual casino. To the astute observer, it was clearly tulip mania:

Tulip mania (Dutch: tulpenmanie) was a period during the Dutch Golden Age when contract prices for some bulbs of the recently introduced and fashionable tulip reached extraordinarily high levels. The major acceleration started in 1634 and then dramatically collapsed in February 1637. It is generally considered to have been the first recorded speculative bubble or asset bubble in history. In many ways, the tulip mania was more of a then-unknown socio-economic phenomenon than a significant economic crisis. It had no critical influence on the prosperity of the Dutch Republic, which was one of the world's leading economic and financial powers in the 17th century, with the highest per capita income in the world from about 1600 to about 1720. The term "tulip mania" is now often used metaphorically to refer to any large economic bubble when asset prices deviate from intrinsic values.

It's still very likely that one could make a lot of gains in bitcoin over the next couple of years. It wouldn't totally shock me if it eventually set another high (perhaps $100k, but if I were predicting I would say $50Kish), but after the next big run will come its more permanent downfall. 

While BTC will remain extremely volatile in the foreseeable future, ultimately it will end up stabilizing around $1000 within the next 10 years. Because, according to my calculation all the way back in 2015, bitcoin's true value is $519.32. Adjusted for inflation, that number has risen to $998.14.

While BTC will never completely fizzle out, it will get back to its roots and be a "currency" for internet geeks, revolutionaries, criminals and non-conformists. If you look closely, the signs are pretty obvious that we are already starting to see that.