Thursday, September 30, 2021

Black Murder Data Matters: 12/57 or 10:1



The FBI has finally released its 2020 Uniform Crime Reporting data from most (but, as usual, not all) of the law enforcement agencies in the U.S. I concentrate on murders, the most accurately reported crime.

Murders and non-negligent manslaughters were up a record-crushing 29.4%, in-line with my January 6, 2021 estimate: “Therefore, the national figure is perhaps in the 25 to 30 percent growth range, double the worst year previously recorded, 1968.”

In the FBI’s expanded homicide data, the black share of known murder offenders increased to a new record of 56.52%.

But, the big news is that while the number of known murder offenders (who can therefore be tabulated racially) increased by 17.3 percent, the number of Unknown murder offenders grew 36.0%. Traditionally, murders in black neighborhoods tend to have the lowest clearance rate, what with snitches getting stitches.

So the black share of murder offenders likely went up even more.

With the new 2020 Census, a somewhat sizable delta has opened up between the percentage of people who say they are racially black and nothing else (12.4%, including black Hispanics) versus people who say they are either all black or also black and something else (14.2%).

Which definition of black are the cops using when they charge somebody with murder? I dunno … probably some use one way, some another.

If you use the more expansive latter figure for the at least partially racially black population of 14.2%, then the ratio of black (and blackish) known murder offenders to nonblack known murder offenders in 2020 was 8.4 to 1. (If use use the more restrictive black-only figure of 12.4%, you get a black to non-black ratio of 9.8 to 1.)

Incredibly, even the the lower (at least part-black) ratio of 8.4 to one is a little higher than the the per capita male to female known murder offender ratio of 7.5 to 1. 


Ever wonder what the systemic narrative would be if White people committed as many murders as blacks? 

Ever wonder what White societies would be like if Whites committed as many murders per capita as blacks?

Ever wonder how it would be if 60% of the country was black and 12% was White, and Whites committed 57% of the murders? 

Ever wonder how.... (insert your own analogy here)?

It's almost an impossible concept to wrap your mind around. 

When 12% of the population commits 57% of murders there's a systemic problem that needs to be explicitly addressed. But instead of it being addressed, it's either blamed on White people or considered taboo (racist) to talk about.

When the data is analyzed further, we can conclude that about 3% of the population (black males ages 16-35) commit 57% of murders. And if you include "36% of unknown murder offenders" then the figures become even more pronounced. It wouldn't be unreasonable to say that 3% of the population commits 70% of murders. 

And if those figures aren't depressing enough, consider that the ratio of black-to-non-black murderer is significantly higher than female-to-male murderer. In other words, the chances of being murdered by a black (12% of pop) is considerably higher (5:1) than your chances of being murdered by a woman (50% of pop).

But, only racists bring up black crime data because they're scared of change and they're full of hate. Or because they've yet to realize that diversity is White people's greatest strength. Because when you think about it, murder is nothing when compared to racism.





 



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